Santiment: Crypto Fear Too Low for Bottom Call
Santiment: Crypto Sentiment Lacks Fear for Market Bottom
Social media activity reveals that Bitcoin remains in a price zone where a decline below $75,000 remains plausible, as noted by Santiment founder Maksim Balashevich.
Cryptocurrency traders are displaying insufficient levels of fear across social platforms to signal the formation of a true market bottom, according to an analysis from a prominent crypto sentiment expert. This suggests that Bitcoin might experience further downside pressure, potentially reaching approximately $75,000.
"It appears quite enticing to approach that level even more closely," remarked Maksim Balashevich, the founder of the crypto market sentiment analysis platform Santiment, during a YouTube video discussion released on Friday.
Such a drop to $75,000 would equate to roughly a 14.77% decrease from Bitcoin’s current trading value around $88,350, based on data from CoinMarketCap.
Balashevich’s caution stems from the prevalent optimism circulating on online forums, where many anticipate an imminent reversal of the current downward trend. He emphasized that this kind of bullish chatter is atypical during genuine market bottoms.
"The broader crowd does not exhibit sufficient fear to indicate a bottom has been reached," Santiment stated in their accompanying report published on the same day.
Balashevich: Optimistic Chatter Signals No Bottom Yet
"Within certain retail-dominated discussion channels, conversations are heavily focused on the Bank of Japan cutting rates, bears getting trapped, and expectations of upward continuation from here," Balashevich observed.
"These types of optimistic declarations are precisely what I do not wish to observe at this juncture," he continued, noting that under different conditions, he would feel much more assured in declaring a market bottom.
On Friday, Japan’s central bank elevated interest rates to a 30-year peak of 0.75%, a policy shift historically linked to approximately 20% corrections in Bitcoin’s price.
Nevertheless, Balashevich views a descent to the $75,000 range as an opportunity that could create a "highly favorable setup" for market participants looking to enter positions.
The previous day, Jurrien Timmer, Fidelity’s director of global macro research, predicted that Bitcoin might enter a "year off" phase in 2026, with prices possibly dipping to around $65,000.
In contrast, other experts like Bitwise chief investment officer Matt Hougan project 2026 as a strongly positive year for Bitcoin’s performance.
Market Indicators Show Fear, Contradicting Balashevich’s View
Despite Balashevich’s reservations about an imminent bottom, various cryptocurrency market metrics paint a different picture, indicating heightened caution among investors.
The Crypto Fear & Greed Index, a key barometer of overall market sentiment in the crypto space, has remained in "Extreme Fear" territory since December 14. As of Sunday, it registered a score of 20, reflecting deep apprehension.
Additional signals point to risk-averse behavior among crypto participants. For instance, the Altcoin Season Index, which tracks the relative strength of the top 100 altcoins against Bitcoin over the last 90 days, indicated a "Bitcoin Season" score of just 17 out of 100 on Saturday.
